US business activity rises in April as Iran conflict boosts oil prices

US business activity increased in April while the Iran conflict drives up prices, per an S&P Global survey. The Polymarket contract for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 3.6% YES, up from 3% a day ago.

Market reaction

The crude oil all-time high market has seen modest movement, with odds of crude exceeding the all-time high of $120/barrel by April 30 ticking up on supply disruption concerns tied to the Iran conflict. The WTI Crude Oil in April market is also drawing trader attention as geopolitical tensions affect oil pricing.

Why it matters

USDC volume in the crude oil all-time high market was $2,006 in the last 24 hours, with $1,020 needed to move the price by 5 points. The market isn’t deeply liquid, which means relatively small trades can produce significant price shifts. At current odds, a YES position on crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 would pay out substantially if the Iran situation escalates enough to make $160 WTI plausible.

What to watch

OPEC+ meetings, US-Iran negotiations, and any new military actions are the main catalysts. Changes in any of these areas could move oil price contracts sharply in either direction.

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