Crypto thefts in 2025 reached $3.4 billion, driven by state actors and mega-hacks. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at 0% YES, while Bitcoin above $62,000 on April 17 trades at
Market reaction
The Bitcoin-to-$60K April contract is inactive, with no meaningful volume. The $62K contract has held at 100% YES since last week. Traders are pricing in no contagion from the theft news to Bitcoin’s near-term price.
Why it matters
North Korean hackers accounted for 60% of the $3.4 billion in thefts. That concentration could trigger tighter regulatory action on exchanges and custody providers. But the prediction markets show zero movement toward a bearish Bitcoin outlook so far. A YES share on the $60K contract costs 0¢ and would pay $1 if it resolves YES, yet nobody is buying.
What to watch
Any public statements from Larry Fink or Jerome Powell on crypto security or regulation could shift sentiment. If regulatory proposals emerge in response to the theft figures, the $62K contract is the first place to look for a reaction.
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