Pune: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said conditions were becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from parts of west Rajasthan around Sept 15 against the usual date of Sept 17 though a fresh spell of heavy to very heavy rainfall was expected over several states, including Maharashtra, in the coming days.“Monsoon withdrawal requires, among other things, the development of an anti-cyclone over Rajasthan. That feature is developing, and no rainfall is expected over the region for the next five days. With the expected decrease in moisture content, we see the start of withdrawal over parts of west Rajasthan around Sept 15, which is close to the usual withdrawal date of Sept 17,” IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told TOI.The IMD issued orange alerts for Maharashtra between Sept 13 and 15, warning of intense rain under the influence of a low-pressure area that had formed over the westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal, off the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts. The forecast stated that heavy to very heavy rainfall was likely over Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh on Sept 13, Telangana between Sept 12 and 14, and across Maharashtra during Sept 13-15.G P Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services, said: “Unlike the onset of monsoon, withdrawal is a more subjective process. The key criteria include cessation of rainfall activity for at least five days, a sharp drop in moisture levels as seen from water vapour satellite imageries, and the setting up of an anti-cyclone over Rajasthan. Of these, rainfall is the most visible sign — if it keeps raining, withdrawal cannot be declared.“He added: “At present, a monsoon system is active over the Bay of Bengal. It is expected to develop into a low-pressure area. This will travel inland across Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, leading to showers over parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and also Mumbai this weekend. The system is, however, unlikely to penetrate too deep into Gujarat or Rajasthan. This is an indication that monsoon is nearing withdrawal. Rainfall may extend to Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and east Rajasthan because of an interaction between this system and a western disturbance. However, extreme west Rajasthan will mostly remain dry.”Sharma said: “Another weather system is expected to form over the Bay of Bengal in about a week’s time. Typically, any new system does not go beyond the track of its predecessor. That will influence how quickly the monsoon retreats further out of north India. After the initial withdrawal from west Rajasthan, the process usually accelerates and covers Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and adjoining regions within a few days. This time, however, it may take a little longer.“On rainfall for Maharashtra, an IMD official said heavy rain was likely over parts of Maharashtra in the next couple of days, but the intensity would not be like that witnessed between Aug 15 and 20.
