NATO allies are openly questioning whether the US should still lead the alliance following Trump’s decision to launch strikes on Iran without consulting them.
Summary
- European leaders are seriously considering a future in which the US no longer leads NATO, following disputes over the Iran war.
- Trump left NATO in the dark before launching strikes on Iran and then demanded alliance support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Analysts say Germany, France, the UK, and Poland are the most likely bloc to assume collective NATO leadership if the US retreats.
NATO allies are questioning US leadership after Trump launched strikes on Iran without consulting the alliance, with fresh disputes over the Middle East conflict pushing European leaders to consider a future in which the US no longer runs the alliance.
Former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder told NPR that “something fundamental has broken,” arguing that Trump does not believe America’s security depends on European security, a break from decades of foreign policy logic dating back to NATO’s founding.
The tensions have been simmering since Trump began threatening to seize control of NATO-linked Greenland and annex Canada, but the Iran war has sharpened the dispute into a concrete institutional question.
Trump launched strikes on Iran in late February without notifying alliance members, and subsequently demanded NATO support in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Allies including Spain, France, and the UK all refused in various forms, drawing a sharp rebuke from Washington.
What European leaders are doing
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said publicly that the US appeared to lack a clear exit strategy in Iran and that Tehran had “humiliated” Washington in peace talks.
Trump responded with a list of NATO allies he wanted to punish for their lack of cooperation, including floated proposals to suspend Spain and return the Falkland Islands to Argentina.
As crypto.news tracked, each round of Iran war escalation has weighed on global markets, with the Hormuz dispute pushing oil toward $100 and compressing Federal Reserve flexibility on rate cuts.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte acknowledged Trump’s frustrations but pushed back on the broader criticism, noting that a “large majority of European nations” had provided logistical support, basing rights, and overflights that enabled US operations. “What the US did with Iran, they could do because so many European countries lived up to those commitments,” Rutte said.
What comes next for the alliance
Analysts who spoke to NPR said they do not expect Trump to actually withdraw from NATO, partly because a 2023 law bars a unilateral exit. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Townsend said the alliance will survive but predicted: “It’s going to be a European NATO, if you will. It won’t be NATO guided by the United States.”
Germany, France, the UK, and Poland are seen as the most likely bloc to assume collective leadership. NATO officials are also considering scaling back major alliance meetings for the remainder of Trump’s second term to avoid creating new crises.
