Pune: The nights of the first month of 2026 are likely to be colder than normal across most regions of Maharashtra and the day temperatures have the highest probability of staying below normal, stated the IMD’s probabilistic outlook for Jan.The minimum temperature outlook, released on Thursday, shows a high probability of below-normal night temperatures over large parts of central and interior Maharashtra, including Vidarbha, Marathwada and adjoining parts of Madhya Maharashtra.These regions are largely in the light to moderate “blue zone” as per the IMD’s tercile categories’ map, indicating a 45-55% probability of nights being colder than the climatological average. Coastal Konkan, however, shows a mixed signal, with near-normal to slightly above-normal minimum temperatures along parts of the coast.Maximum temperatures in Maharashtra are also likely to remain below normal through much of Jan, with the state falling largely in the below-normal probability zone, the IMD’s outlook stated.The maximum temperature probability map showed most of Maharashtra shaded in light to moderate blue, indicating a 45-55% probability of daytime temperatures being below the climatological average.“This signal is prominent across Vidarbha, Marathwada and large parts of Madhya Maharashtra, suggesting that daytime warming will remain subdued, unlike a typical Jan pattern where only nights turn colder,” an IMD official said.Parts of interior south Maharashtra also showed a similar below-normal tendency for maximum temperatures, while Konkan displayed a mixed signal. “Overall, the outlook indicates that Jan will not just be about cold nights, but will also see cooler-than-usual days across interior Maharashtra,” the official said.The cold wave duration anomaly map in the forecast indicated a mixed but notable signal for Maharashtra. Parts of interior Maharashtra, particularly central and south-east regions, show positive anomalies of one to three days, suggesting above-normal cold wave days in these pockets this month. At the same time, some areas in western and northern Maharashtra showed near-normal or marginally negative anomalies, indicating no widespread or prolonged cold wave days.The IMD also released its Statement on the Climate of India during 2025, highlighting the scale of weather-related disasters across the country last year. It showed that extreme rainfall events, including floods, cloudbursts and landslides, claimed over 1,370 lives across the country in 2025. Maharashtra recorded the highest toll of over 210 deaths, followed by Himachal Pradesh with over 160 fatalities. Jammu and Kashmir reported over 155 deaths, including 63 people killed on Aug 14 following a massive cloudburst, heavy rain and flash floods in Kishtwar and 32 deaths on Aug 27 after a landslide in Reasi.
