Pune: India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday indicated a potential revival of southwest monsoon between June 12 and 18 following a prolonged stall since May 29.An IMD official said a system might form over the Bay of Bengal around June 12-13, though uncertainties persisted because of conflicting model outputs. “Some models suggest the formation of a system, while others do not. We are not confident enough to include it in our forecast yet,” the official said.The extended-range forecast, however, points to a monsoon revival during the specified period, irrespective of whether a system forms or not. Post-revival, the IMD anticipates robust rainfall across central India, parts of Maharashtra and South Peninsular India (parts where monsoon has already advanced).The forecast brings hope to regions grappling with dry spells, as the monsoon’s progress has been sluggish over the past week. The IMD official said: “The monsoon’s advance across other regions post-revival will hinge on rainfall distribution and establishment of monsoon winds.”An extended range forecast by IMD also indicated that the southwest monsoon was likely to advance over some more parts of central and east India during the week June 12 to 18.For the same week, it said fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls were likely over many parts of south Peninsular and adjoining Central India due to the strengthening of westerly winds along the west coast and likely development of an off-shore trough off West Coast.Overall rainfall activity was likely to be above normal over south peninsular India; normal to above normal over many parts of central India and below normal over northwest, east and northeast India from June 12-18, the IMD extended range forecast stated.Private forecaster Skymet Weather Services, however, expressed greater confidence in the formation of a monsoon system over the Bay of Bengal. Its president, G P Sharma, said: “A precursor cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over the west-central Bay of Bengal by June 10. It will take another 48 hours for reorganisation and consolidation.”He said: “The system is likely to trigger weather activity along the coastline from June 11, impacting parts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The weather system may track slightly south of its usual path, moving across Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra.”Skymet predicted the monsoon revival window to span from June 12 to 17, covering most of south peninsular India. Both agencies cautioned that model accuracy “diminishes beyond 4-5 days”, and that the predictions would be closely monitored and updated as needed.Sharma said Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and isolated areas of Marathwada were expected to witness light to moderate rainfall over the next two to three days. “Brief rain spells may occur in western Vidarbha, while the eastern districts are likely to stay mostly dry. A brief lull in rainfall is expected between June 9 and 11, potentially leading to higher daytime temperatures across Maharashtra. From June 12, the monsoon is anticipated to strengthen, bringing moderate to heavy showers to many parts of the state, aiding the monsoon’s progression into North Madhya Maharashtra and central Vidarbha,” he said.
