Iran envoy suggests US may lift Hormuz blockade amid diplomatic signals

Iran’s UN envoy claims the US might lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. The odds for Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 are at 76% YES, down from 82% yesterday.

The Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market has dropped 6 points in recent days. The envoy’s claim could point to a breakthrough in the US-Iran standoff, but the market is pricing in uncertainty given the number of actors and unresolved conditions involved.

The odds for the blockade being lifted sit at 76% YES. Daily trading volume is $27,582 in USDC, and it takes $8,549 to move the price by 5 percentage points. The market is liquid enough to trade but thin enough that a single motivated participant can shift the odds.

The Middle East Eye report is a tier-2 source: credible but not definitive. At 76¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade is lifted by May 31, a 1.32x return. To justify buying YES, traders need to believe concrete de-escalation actions are coming soon.

Watch for official statements from the White House and the Pentagon. Trump’s next public comments or any intermediary activity in Islamabad could move these odds further.

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